Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2025

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead

This article was originally published on 18 November, 2024 by author Tom Standage in The Economist.

 

It seems appropriate that 2025 has been designated the year of quantum science and technology by the United Nations. Because like Schrödinger’s cat, which (in a quantum thought-experiment) was both alive and dead at the same time inside a closed box, 2025 has hovered in a superposition of two very different states, defined by the outcome of America’s election. Now the ballot boxes have been opened, the world knows which 2025 to expect: the one where Donald Trump returns to the White House. With that uncertainty resolved, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

 

1. America’s choice. The repercussions of Mr Trump’s sweeping victory will affect everything from immigration and defence to economics and trade. His “America First” policy will have friends and foes alike questioning the solidity of America’s alliances. This could lead to geopolitical realignments, heightened tensions and even nuclear proliferation.
2. Voters expect change. More generally, incumbent parties did badly in 2024’s unprecedented wave of elections. Some were chucked out (as in America and Britain); others were forced into coalition (as in India and South Africa); others were pushed into cohabitation (as in Taiwan and France). So 2025 will be a year of expectations. Can new leaders deliver what they promised? Will humbled leaders change? If not, unrest may follow.
3. Broader disorder. Mr Trump may push Ukraine to do a deal with Russia and give Israel a free hand in its conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. America’s more transactional stance and scepticism of foreign entanglements will encourage troublemaking by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (the “quartet of chaos”) and more meddling by regional powers, like that seen in crisis-hit Sudan. But it is unclear whether America would stand up to China in a conflict over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
4. Tariffying prospects. For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies. As protectionism intensifies, Chinese firms are expanding abroad, both to get around trade barriers and to tap new markets in the global south. So much for decoupling; Chinese firms, building factories from Mexico to Hungary, have other plans. 2025 will be a year of expectations. Can new leaders deliver?
5. Clean-tech boom. China’s government has encouraged booming exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles to offset a weak domestic economy. The result is a Chinese-led clean-tech boom, with adoption of solar panels and grid storage outstripping forecasts. And the world will soon learn whether global emissions have peaked.
6. After inflation. The rich world’s central bankers have celebrated the defeat of inflation. Now Western economies face a new challenge: reducing deficits, by increasing taxes, cutting spending or boosting growth. Many may also have to increase defence budgets. Painful economic choices loom. In America, Mr Trump’s policies will make things worse: hefty import tariffs could hamper growth and reignite inflation.
7. Age-old questions. America has just picked its oldest-ever president-elect. World leaders are greying, along with their populations. Expect more discussion of age limits for political leaders. China, meanwhile, is looking for economic opportunities in an ageing world. In parts of the Middle East, by contrast, a booming youth population, coupled with a shortage of jobs, risks instability.
8. Crunch time for AI. It’s the biggest gamble in business history: more than $1trn is being spent on data centres for artificial intelligence (AI), even though companies are still not sure how to use it and adoption rates are low (though many workers may simply be using it in secret). Will investors lose their nerve, or will AI prove its worth, as “agentic” systems become more capable and AI-developed drugs emerge?
9. Travel troubles. The global movement of people, not just goods, faces increasing friction. Conflict is disrupting global aviation. Europe is adding new border checks, and its borderless Schengen system is fraying. The backlash against “overtourism” will diminish in 2025, but restrictions introduced by many cities, from Amsterdam to Venice, will remain.
10. Life of surprises. With assassination attempts, exploding walkie-talkies and giant rockets being captured by chopsticks, one lesson of 2024 was to expect the unbelievable. What implausible-sounding things could happen in 2025?